Matute, H. , Yarritu Corrales, I. & Vadillo, M. A.
Deusto University
The illusion of control is at the heart of superstition and pseudoscience. It consists of overestimating the degree of control that we have over desired outcomes that are actually occurring independently of our behavior. This illusion is stronger when the outcome occurs frequently and the participant is personally involved in trying to obtain it. The traditional social psychology explanation assumes that this is due to a need to protect self-esteem. In consequence, it predicts that there should be no illusion when there is no threat to self-esteem, a prediction that is contrary to many instances of superstition and pseudoscience in real life. By contrast, a cognitive explanation assumes that the illusion of control is caused by the response-outcome coincidences that take place when the participant is involved in trying to obtain the outcome. We conducted two experiments in which another participant or a fictitious patient played the role of the agent, with the actual participants being mere observers. The agent could administer or not a given medical treatment. The outcome (healing) occurred frequently though independently of the treatment, that is, it followed a pre-programmed sequence. Participants observed the sequence of events and developed the illusion that there was a causal relationship between the behavior and the outcome. This illusion was strongest when the agent was responding at a higher rate. That is, personal involvement (of the agent) increased the illusion in the observer. Self-esteem of the observer was not at risk, so this cannot explain the results. We conclude that personal involvement increases the illusion because it increases responding, which biases exposure to the contingency information that is needed in order to accurately estimate the degree of causal relationship between any two events.